The Fallacy of Running the Football

Football conventional wisdom says that you need to run the football to win games in the NFL. Perhaps that was true in the 60's and 70's when league wide completion percentage was around 50% and the passing game was little more than chuck it down the field and pray. Passes resulted in either a 40 yard gain or an interception.

Now, defenders are so quick to the ball, running is much more difficult. Offenses need to create space and get the football to the ball handlers fast in order to combat bigger quicker defenders. The timing, precision, and efficiency of NFL passing games is such now that interception rates have plummeted, and completion percentages have skyrocketed. Drew Brees is at 70.6% complete this year and will likely break the NFL single season record set by Ken Anderson. Peyton Manning is behind him at a mere 68.5 %. This despite 515 and 553 pass attempts respectively through 15 games.

Here are a couple examples to illustrate my point:

In 1962, George Blanda threw 42 interceptions against 27 TD's in 14 games for the Houston Oilers. That team was 11-3 and went to the NFL Championship game. Blanda went to the Pro Bowl that season. He also completed only 47.1% of his passes. Conversely, Jay Cutler, who has we all know has been a bust for the Bears this season, leads the NFL with 26 picks. His completion percentage: 60.5%, about average for the modern NFL. His team is 6-9 in no small part to his mistakes.

Need further evidence? Let's suppose that the best 12 teams in the NFL get into the playoffs (not entirely accurate, but please play along). Of the top 12 passing teams in the NFL in terms of yards, nine of them are in the playoffs. The ones that are not in, the Giants, Steelers, and Texans, were in the hunt this year and could all finish with winning records. Of the top 12 rushing teams, only six would be in the playoffs if they started today. In fact I believe that teams with a tendency to run the football more than 510 times in a season (32 times a game or so) are usually doing it to mask offensive deficiencies.

Of course, I am not saying that teams should abandon the run entirely. It's necessary to keep defenses off balance, pick up short yardage, and protect your quarterback. All I am saying is that a successful NFL offense is about sustaining drives and converting third downs. These days doing that is more about an efficient passing game than three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust.