Super Bowl XLIV Preview

Before the sports pundits give their bottom line predictions you can get your Super Bowl winner here first at brosatarms.

This is so hard because this is really the match up I've wanted since mid-season. There are compelling reasons to pick either team as well as compelling reasons to cheer for either team.

Both teams are tenacious. They have obvious shortcomings that have somehow been able to prevent from being exposed. The most obvious of these shortcomings is defense. Both are opportunistic and though they are mediocre statistically, they make timely plays and are able to stiffen up inside the 20 yard line. Because of these defensive tendencies, I envision a high scoring game with one or two big defensive plays making the difference.

Both quarterbacks have avoided the big mistake although Manning has looked more sharp. Brees all of a sudden has some accuracy problems. Against the Colts' cover 2, accuracy will be crucial because there's always someone closing on the ball. The Saints will try to bludgeon Manning into submission, but good luck getting to him. Unlike Favre, he will not hold the ball. I think the Saints will get burned once or twice while blitzing.

All that being said in my gut I feel the Colts are just more polished. We could be looking at another incredibly close game with lots of scoring with Indianapolis coming out on top.

Colts 33, Saints 30

Congrats Colts. Superlative Saints.

Wasn't just a month ago that I was killing these two teams for how they played out the last few games of the season? Though I was wrong about them, I did get the Super Bowl I really, really wanted.

As soon as Manning and the Colts drove 80 yards at the end of the first half to cut the Jets lead to 17-13, I said to myself, this game is over. The Colts took about 28 minutes to figure out the Jets and made a couple of bad mistakes on defense early. But after that, the Colts dominated. You could see it in Manning's eyes, I gotcha.

The other game just kind of got me aggravated. But after several careless fumbles, many inexplicable penalties, and one last boneheaded int. by Brett Favre, the Saints came out with the win. Favre's play has already been analyzed to death over the past 18 hours, so the only thing I have to say is... the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, yet expecting a different result.

Super Bowl preview coming soon.

NFL Conference Championships

Since my Super Bowl picks (Packers and Chargers) are both out after a mere one playoff game each, let's press the reset button now that we're a week away from the big game.

Jets vs. Colts: Yes, the Jets have an awesome defense. Yes, they like to pound the rock, and the Colts are vulnerable to that sort of thing. No, the Colts can't run themselves. But this is a different Colts team. It's a team that wills itself to win. Some will say that a tight game favors the Jets because of their defense. I say it favors Indy because they have #18. I think Manning will pick apart whatever blitzes and coverages the Jets have. Even if they don't get any huge plays Manning will be happy to kill New York 6 or 7 yards at a time. Manning's stats on the day... 35-50, 285 yards, 1 TD 0 int. Colts 20, Jets 10. (On a side note, Jets' opponents have missed five straight field goals this post season. Absolutely uncanny and absolutely lucky. That's the kind of bull crap that a win-ugly team like the Jets needs to get a championship.)

Vikings vs. Saints: Both teams have come off dominating wins and seem to have their swagger back after struggling the last month of the regular year. The Vikings looked especially impressive to me after they dismantled the Cowboys, a team that is far more balanced than the Cardinals, who the Saints beat. But the Vikes can't win. They mustn't. I can't watch FarveTV for two weeks. Right... It's not possible... OH GOD!! Saints 34, Vikings 28.

NFL Division Round 2010

• So much for me bad mouthing the Saints. I really thought, at the very least, that this game against the Cards would be competitive. It was the high scoring affair that most were predicting. It's just that the Saints did all the scoring.
• And so much for me bad mouthing the Colts. They beat the Ravens Saturday through good, old fashioned hard work and determination. The Colts get most of their press clippings via big plays by Manning and the receivers. But over the past few seasons, they have really learned to grind out wins and how to win ugly. Though the 20-3 score would indicate otherwise, their victory was the result of a full game of battling the tough Ravens' D and the Colts' defenders tightening their chinstraps against the Ravens' vaunted running game. The result was still in doubt for most of the fourth quarter.
• It was enjoyable to see the hated Cowboys feel the pain of having kicker Shaun Suisham on the roster. He missed two makable field goals Sunday. Not that it made much difference. The Vikings' pass rush is back and forced Tony Romo into more turnovers than a German bakery.
• And just when you thought we would see all front runners in the conference title games, the Jets come along and screw things up. The defense kept them in the game and the offense made just enough plays to win. Meanwhile, are the Chargers the new Colts? The super talented team that fails time and again in the playoffs?
• I tell you what though. The Colts better beat the hell out of the Jets next week. And the Saints better beat the Vikes. I don't think I could stomach the sports media if one of them made it to the Super Bowl. Worse yet what if the Jets AND the Vikings make it. It may be the first Super Bowl in 20 years that I skip watching. I couldn't deal with replay after replay of Joe Willies index finger held aloft in 1969 or god forbid Farve Fest 2010!

NFL Playoffs-Stream of Consciousness

• I thought I could get home from the grocery store in time to see the end of Packers vs. Cardinals. I didn't. But that's ok. The stir fry was pretty good too. (grumble, grumble.)
• The Raven's D looked like their D circa 2002. They made Tom Brady look like Kyle Boller. But beware. Although that Pats team has a lot of holes, they still won 10 games. Brady still has a number of good years ahead of him. Just renovate the D and look out.
• From the Looking Old Department: Randy Moss and Chad Johnson. Moss has been absolute force in the league (save a two year nap in Oakland) since his rookie year in 1998. He even finished tied for TD catches for the fifth time this season at the age of 32. But he looked sluggish and absolutely coverable yesterday. Is this a harbinger of things to come? Johnson had a excellent five year run as a premiere playmaker in the league. Last season he hit 30 and seemingly hit the wall. He had a nice bounce back year this season, but Derrelle Revis pushed him around like a skinny rag doll two games in a row.
• The Saints were very fortunate that Sunday's games turned out the way they did. As a result, they draw the Cardinals, a team much like them, that wants to throw the ball if they can and has an opportunistic if not dominant defense. Whose better at it? It's arguable. But for the Saints it's preferable to facing the white hot Cowboys or the second ranked Packers defense (I know they yacked it up yesterday, but still.)
• Conversely the Colts couldn't have asked for a worse opponent than the Ravens next week. Baltimore rushed 52 freakin' times against the Patriots, steamrolling their way to 234 yards. This does not bode well for the lightweight Indianapolis D. Of course if the Colts get a quick lead somehow, that's a different story. But I think it's far more likely that the Colts get bullied in the playoffs like they normally do. I have a lot of admiration for the Colts, and I hope I'm wrong, but I smell disaster.

NFL Hyperbolic Statements- Playoffs!!!

It's the post everyone has been waiting for. It's the one where I tell you the eventual Super Bowl winner. Just like my granddad, you'll be taking your phones into the hallway, out of ear shot of your wife, to call your bookie after this one. Don't worry; no dumb ass Peter King-esque scores that could never happen such as 32-18. First the AFC...

The Chargers have flown under the radar all season, overshadowed by the Colts and Saints. But lest we forget, San Diego has won 11 in a row. Perhaps if this win streak started at the beginning of the season and ended in the number zero, people would have taken more notice. Right now they are simply the most complete team in the NFL. I know the Colts have Manning, but I see them gagging. As for the rest of the conference, I don't think there's anyone else close.

AFC Wild Card:

Ravens 21, New England 14 Bengals 16, Jets 10

AFC Divisional Round:

Chargers 30, Bengals 7 Colts 24, Ravens 17

AFC Championship:

Chargers 35, Colts 24

As for the NFC, what a freakin' mess. I love the Saints and Drew Brees, and I wish I could pick them. But how can I pick a team that limped it's way into the playoffs riding a three game losing streak? I decided to go with the teams that I feel have the best playing quarterbacks and the best playing defenses right now.

NFC Wild Card:

Packers 31, Cardinals 20 Cowboys 20, Eagles 17

NFC Divisional Round:

Cowboys 27, Vikings 21 Packers 28, Saints 17

NFC Championship:

Green Bay 26, Cowboys 20

I think a Chargers/Packers Super Bowl would be highly entertaining and represent a changing of the guard a bit for NFL quarterbacks. Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers are two of the best young QB's in the game. I see a highly competitive relatively high scoring game ending with the first world title in San Diego sports... I believe.

Chargers 37, Packers 27.

Crappy Colts, Sucky Saints

What a B.S. way to end the season for Indianapolis and New Orleans. A few weeks ago I begged the football gods for a Colts vs. Saints Super Bowl. Perhaps I was too greedy when I asked for both to be 18-0. The way these teams both ended the season is gutless and inexcusable. With the way they started and the way they ended they have to the most bizarre set of 14-2 and 13-3 teams in the history of planet Earth. I thought maybe one of them, perhaps the Saints, would man up and win their final regular season game, but no. I foresee an early exit for both.

Now I will segue smooth as butter into a teaser for my playoff predictions. Later this week, when I get a good look at the match ups I will predict the entire playoffs. If you recall, last year I predicted that the Steelers would be the champs just before the playoffs began. (Of course, the rest of the post season was a little rocky, but I picked the champs nonetheless.) Stay tuned.

Kurt Warner and the Hall of Fame

This topic has been addressed on several media outlets over the past few days, so I may as well weigh in. Is Kurt Warner a Hall of Famer? My short answer is, no. Before I explain this, I'd like to extol the virtues of Warner a bit since I have a tremendous amount of respect for the man. First, his meteoric rise to MVP and Super Bowl Champion is the stuff of cheesy, movie-of-the-week schlock. You can't make this stuff up. That speaks to his resolve as a person and his work ethic. Second, he is one of the most accurate passers I've ever seen. He ranks number two all time in completion percentage. He is also first all time in yards per game. Peyton Manning is second. He's always had a knack for playing well in big games and possesses a mental and physical toughness that I love. Not to mention he is one of the great people of the game. His charity work is well documented.

My favorite story about Warner is about a little tradition his family has when out for their pre-game meal on Saturday nights. The Warner family scans the restaurant for another family having dinner. Once they pick out this family at random, they anonymously pay for their meal. He says he does it to remind his kids how fortunate they are and to instill the value of generosity in them.

Unfortunately, Warner hasn't had enough good seasons and hasn't stayed healthy enough to be HOF worthy in my eyes. In his eleven years in the NFL, he's had five good ones. The interesting part is that four of the five have been transcendentally good netting two MVP's and three Super Bowl appearances with one win to this point. In 1999, he produced the third 40 TD pass season in history. In 2001, he threw for the second highest yardage total in NFL history at that point (that season now ranks third).

However, the other six seasons were curtailed by injury and ineffectiveness. A future Hall of Fame QB is not a journeyman who is constantly looking over his shoulder and fighting for his job. In 2002, he was benched for Marc Bulger after throwing 3 TD's and 11 int's in seven games. In 2004, he was benched for rookie, Eli Manning. This season was the first season he's played 16 games since 2001.

If Warner wins the Super Bowl in two weeks, I think he will most likely be elected to the HOF eventually. (He would be the first QB with Super Bowl wins with two different teams). The Football HOF places too much emphasis on rings the way that the Baseball HOF places too much emphasis on statistical benchmarks. If Warner had a more consistent career and had been perennially good instead of possessing a handful of brilliant moments, I think he would be a slam dunk Hall of Famer. That said, I wouldn't complain if he got in. It couldn't happen to a nicer guy.

Championship Sunday Round Up

• I usually know who to cheer for come Super Bowl time. But there are a lot of reasons to like both Arizona and Pittsburgh. Not least of which is that Warner and Roethlisberger are two of my favorite QB's.
• Roethlisberger can be maddening at times, the way he holds the ball ...and holds the ball. But yesterday he was at his slippery best without turning it over. His receivers, including Santonio Holmes in particular, did an awesome job of getting open once the play was busted. It was like sandlot football out there.
• People forget that in Kurt Warner's St. Louis days the running game was there to keep teams honest. They threw a lot obviously, but they also got huge chunks of yards on the ground and often had a team average of over 4.5 yards per carry. When Warner has that to help him, he's even more deadly. As opposed to Big Ben, he gets the ball out quick and is one of the most accurate passers in the game.
• This just in: Larry Fitzgerald is a monster. He's like Randy Moss without the baggage. Plus, as a bonus, he breaks tackles like Jerome Bettis. He is deceptively strong.
• It took Arizona this long to find a consistent winning formula. I don't know how, but the defense is playing much better. These certainly doesn't look like the same squad that surrendered 426 points this season. I kept waiting for an opponent to run all over them. It never happened. That combined with a commitment to the rush themselves are the reasons for their success.
• I can't help but feel bad for Donovan McNabb. The right thing to do is blow it all up now in Philly and get something in a trade for McNabb and even Westbrook. I can see a 5-11 season next year easily.
• I can envision McNabb having a lot of success on a team where he doesn't have to be the man. Minnesota would be perfect.
• Joe Flacco's inaccuracy finally caught up with him. As I said before, it was pretty remarkable how he was able to avoid turnovers with the way he sprays the ball all over the field.
• My thoughts and prayers are with Willis McGahee, who suffered a devastating hit yesterday. He was carted off the field on a stretcher. Fortunately, preliminary medical reports are that he is in good condition, but he will remain in the hospital for observations.
• I guess I have to stick with my pre-playoff Super Bowl Pick. Things didn't pan out exactly as I thought, but the Steelers seem poised to win their second championship in four seasons and their record setting sixth as a franchise. I think it will be a very close game with the Steeler defense making the one play they need. Steelers 24, Cardinals 17.

Conference Championship QB's

So it is down to this; three birds and a 'burgh. The most interesting part of the upcoming conference title games is that three of the four quarterbacks have major experience on this type of stage and one is a rookie. I've always thought that experience is a little overrated. After all those with experience had to do it the first time once, but let's take a look at the four quarterbacks' resumes.

Donovan McNabb: This is his fifth NFC title game. How does this compare with some of the great QB's of the Super Bowl area? Joe Montana played in six. Troy Aikman, four. The difference between these two men and McNabb is obviously the rings. So how does the experience of losing 3 of 4 of these games and the failure in the Super Bowl affect him? Does it make him loose or tight? Confident or doubtful? The truth will be in the performance.

Ben Roethlisberger: This is title game number three for Roethlisberger. He has one win and one loss, but he does have the super hardware. I believe that will make him much looser than McNabb, but no less hungry. He has mixed results in important spots like this. Though he won a Super Bowl with the Steelers, he did not play great. Will we get Big Ben or Bad Ben vs. the Ravens? I think he needs to play conservatively against the Baltimore D. He should pick his spots to go down field, but if he has to take a sack, he should take it and not risk the fumbles that he too often gives up.

Kurt Warner: This is Warner's third title game. His record in the previous two is 2-0. He has two Super Bowl appearances with one win. I've always kind of thought of him as Brett Favre lite. He is a high risk high reward type of player although he's always been way more accurate than Favre. Also, his tendency is fumbles, not int's like Favre. Still somehow he's the guy I trust most out of all of the QB's playing Sunday. It helps that he has the best targets, but he just seems the most unflappable to me.

Joe Flacco: The intriguing thing about Flacco is that although he hasn't been very accurate or thrown for a boatload of yards, but he hasn't had one negative play in playoffs, not one. No fumbles, no int's, no sacks. And in spite of his relative inaccuracy, when he has needed to stick a throw, he sticks it. Think of his TD pass last against the Titans and the third down conversion that led to the game winning field goal. We'll see if he can be protected against the Pittsburgh blitz and make those throws again.

Finally, here is a great article that articulates exactly what I've been thinking about the problem with the NFL playoff system in a way I never figured out how to do.

NFL Divisional Playoffs

I gave you all my thoughts on Giants vs. Eagles and Titans vs. Ravens in my last post. Now for the other two games, which I think are a lot easier to predict. First of all they feature my two Super Bowl teams that I picked at the start of the playoffs. Secondly these second seeds have much more favorable match ups as the Steelers and Panthers face a couple of fraud divisional winners in the Chargers and Cardinals respectively.

Both the Chargers and Cardinals have explosive capabities on offense. San Diego has been rejuvinated by Darren Sproles and the Cardinals passing game has its swagger back. (If I can digress for one minute, it appears that LT is nearing the end of the line. He is banged up and probably won't play Sunday, but beyond that his burst seems gone. I love LT as a player and person. He will probably end up in the HOF, but RB's sure to get old in a hurry once their time is up, don't they?) However, the playoffs are mostly about defense and the Steelers and Panthers have that in spades. They will find a way to make a stop, force a turnover, or get a sack at the right time to win these games.

The Steelers and Chargers played that Ed Hocchuli game early in the season and Pittsburgh won by a point. This will be a much talked about aspect of this weekend's game. Will it have any bearing on this playoff rematch? No, no, and no, so stop talking about it. The Chargers probably have as good a chance to pull an upset as anyone, but I just can't see it happening. I can see Phillip Rivers losing his mind after getting sacked for the fourth time though.

There is no way Arizona will be able to stop Carolina's running attack. If they hold Carolina under 140 yards, I will eat my hat. I know they corralled Michael Turner, but I can't envision them doing that two weeks in a row. Their body of work shows Arizona to be a poor defensive team. They allow 110 yard rushing per game, 16th in the NFL, and 426 points, 5th worst in the league and the worst of any team in the playoffs. One good game does not a season make.

Eagles, Ravens Vindicate Dan

Well, I was 50% on Wild Card Weekend thanks to wins by Baltimore and Philly. The Eagles had a clear advantage in QB play, which I thought would be the difference and it was. Minnesota's D helped them hang around, but once they got down two scores, it took AP out of the game plan, and the Vikings were toast.

Miami's offense was just not able to challenge the Raven's defense at all. Joe Flacco, while he sprayed the football all over the field, didn't make the big mistakes and Chad Pennington did. Chad has a number of good qualities; intelligence, accuracy, leadership. But sometimes you just need a big gun. Chad doesn't have one. There was one deep ball he threw where he had a receiver open despite double coverage. Had he been able to get the ball out in front and toward the sideline, he may have completed it. Instead it was short and to the inside, easy pickings.

The results of the weekend festivities have created some unfavorable match ups for the top seeds in each conference (on account of the stupid seeding process placing division winners in a higher position than wild cards regardless of record). The Giants have to play division foe, Philadelphia, for the third time. The aggregate score from the two regular season meetings; Eagles 51, Giants 50. (Thanks Peter King.) They're probably the last team the Giants want to face.

Baltimore goes to Tennessee in the Ug Bowl. The first team to attempt a pass loses. It will result in an interception or a sack and fumble. Final score 3-0. Both teams rely on defense and getting lucky. The key to beating teams like these is to be patient and play mistake free. Even though I don't think much of Kerry Collins, I have to give the Titans the advantage at QB. Joe Flacco looked like Mitch Williams yesterday the way he was flinging it around.

Cardinals, Chargers make a fool of Dan

So far it's an inauspicious start for me and my playoff predictions.  I really thought that the Falcons would be able to run all over the Cardinals.  Instead Arizona held Michael Turner to 42 yards on 18 carries.  Their defense, whom I had bad-mouthed, even added a touchdown on top of it when they blew up a hand off in the third quarter and Antrelle Rolle returned the fumble all the way.  The Cardinals never relinquished the lead after that.

The MVP for the Chargers was arguably their punter, Mike Scifres, who consistently pinned the Colts in their own end.  The most impressive punt was the one that he boomed in the fourth with the Chargers down three that hit at the one and careened directly toward the sideline.  This put the Colts' backs against the wall for their last meaningful possession of the game and set up the Chargers with great field position to eventually get the tying field goal.  Then it was the Colts defense that killed them in overtime with penalties, allowing San Diego to drive deep in Indy territory.  Darren Sproles then atoned for an earlier red zone fumble with the winning TD run.  You can't say enough about what he meant in the absence of LT.  San Diego continues to have Indy's number as they have won four out the past five meetings. 

NFL Playoff Predictions

Just to show that I have the cajones, I'm going to predict the entire NFL playoffs as if I were filling out an NCAA tournament bracket. I'm just going to lay it all out there and see what the reaction is. First the AFC. As I've said all year, I just can't see the Titans making it to the Super Bowl. If Roethlisberger takes care of the ball, there is no team that will best the Steeler defense. Beware the red hot Colts, however.

Wild Card Round:
Colts 26, Chargers 17; Ravens 13, Dolphins 7
Divisional Round:
Steelers 24, Colts 17; Titans 14, Ravens 3
AFC Championship:
Steelers 31, Titans 17

Now the NFC. If the Eagles and Falcons win on Wild Card Weekend, it will create some unfavorable match ups for the top seeds. No one wants to see a divisional rival for the third time in the playoffs, especially the top seeds who gain virtually no advatange from homefield or the intimidation. That being said, I think the Giants and Panthers will find ways to win close games.

Wild Card Round:
Falcons 34, Cardinals 7; Eagles 17, Vikings 7
Divisional Round:
Giants 30, Eagles 24; Panthers 27, Falcons 21
NFC Championship:
Panthers 34, Giants 31

The Super Bowl will feature two teams that appeared in the big game on separate occasions a few years ago. Their experiences and the coaching will make it a hard fought well played game. Unfortunately, for Jake Delhomme and John Fox they will have their second Super Bowl loss in six seasons. The teams match up pretty evenly, but the Steelers have a clear advatage at the most important position, QB. Steelers 24, Panthers 10

NFL Top 10: Week 16

We have a real shake up at the top here. At this point in the season, I'm basing this on recent performance more so than body of work. Each of the top four teams has an impressive resume this season, so I'm going by who looks good right now. What a great weekend ahead featuring two potential conference championship previews with home field on the line.

1. Steelers (11-3): Last week #3. I had the idea to put the Steelers at number one late Sunday night, but because they get to write sports for a living Don Banks and Peter King of SI scooped me. Big Ben was the difference last weekend (controversial call aside). He was the main reason they won and the Ravens lost. He engineered a 92 yard game winning drive and Joe Flacco looked like a rookie, completing less than 50% and throwing two picks.

2. Panthers (11-3): Last week #4. I love their running game. I hate it when teams rely on the run just because the offense has no talent. This rushing attack is down right explosive.

3. Giants (11-3): Last week #1. Two losses in a row. Tisk, tisk. I refuse to believe that Burress' absence is the problem. Jacobs is the straw that stirs the drink as another NYC sports hero said. Run the ball, then you can go down field.

4. Titans (12-2): Last week #2. See what happens when you stop the running attack and make Kerry Collins try to beat you. Houston did it perfectly. I know Collins has made opponents pay at times this season, but I sure wouldn't fear him if I were the Steelers or Ravens (for example). I would be worried most of all by the prospect of Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch being out for two weeks or more. Without their D this team has jack squat.


5. Colts (10-4): Last week #5. Another double digit win season for Peyton and crew. They just keep finding ways to win. Like I said before, no one wants to face them in the playoffs. I wonder how much, if anything, will be on the line in the season finale vs. the Titans.


6. Dolphins (9-5): Last week #8. The teams on the rest of this list all control their own destiny. In other words, they don't need help to get in the tournament. They just need to win. I think it's completely underrated how much of a stabilizing force Chad Pennington has been for this team.


7. Ravens (9-5): Last week #6. They're still very much in the hunt even after the disappointing loss to Pittsburgh. We'll see how the young QB, Flacco, rebounds from the poor outing.


8. Cowboys (9-5): Last week #9. I wouldn't be surprised if this team won out and made it to the Super Bowl or lost their last two and completely imploded.


9. Buccaneers (9-5): Last week #7. They're reeling after two straight losses, and I'd love to put the Falcons here, but I can't. The Bucs are in a better situation with tie breakers.


10. Jets (9-5): Last week unranked. See above only switch Falcons with Patriots.

What the hell is up with...? Fairness. There are a number of teams who, in certain scenarios, could finish 11-5 and miss the playoffs, while the Cardinals could finish as 8-8 division winners and still get in. In my opinion, the divisions are too small. You only have to be better than 3 teams to get into the tournament. This will never happen, but you could keep the division structure to help with scheduling and still allow the 6 best teams from each conference in based completely on record and seed accordingly. The NFL would hate this, but in my system, the top two teams could come from the same division and both get byes. Oh well, a guy can dream.