The Bird Giveth; The Bird Taketh

As encouraging as it was for the Sox to sweep the Jays, it was just as disheartening to see the Sox give away the last two games to the Orioles. Last night was especially frustrating as Daisuke Matsuzaka's start began efficiently and ended in an unmitigated disaster. The first four innings were great, one hit, one run. In fifth however, he got blown up for seven runs and got the hook. It's gonna be "No-Dice" for him pretty soon. This signing is heading for Mike Hampton/Carl Pavano territory.

The bats of course made a mockery of the O's pitchers. You score nine runs against them (or anybody) and a win is expected. But the Sox can't seem to put all aspects of the game together. They pitch well and there's offense. They put up a crooked number, and they can't hold their opponents down. (I'm looking at you Josh Beckett.) "It's early" seems to be the mantra, but I think it's going to be a long season or sub par anyway. I place the over/under at 85 wins.

Can they at least get a win on my birthday galldangit!

State of the Rotation: Andy Pettitte vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka

The fourth slot in our match is the one with the biggest differences. Andy Pettitte and Daisuke Matsuzaka could not be more different in every way. Pettitte is the old veteran lefty who relies on pitching smarts and location rather than raw physical power.

Matsuzaka on the other hand is a pitcher that has shown himself to be a pure power pitcher in every sense of the word. The righty lives by the strikeout and dies by the walk. He often shies away from contact and while that strategy won him 18 games in 2008, it ballooned his WHIP to 1.87 in 2009.

Everyone recognizes what Dice-K has in his arm; he has a power fastball and a set of devastating breaking pitches. His problem is that throughout his major league career he has never challenged hitters on a consistent basis and that has led to high walk rates. Red Sox Nation ignored the problem while Matsuzaka was pitching to the tune of a 2.90 ERA in '08, but eventually the problem came back and bite him. It didn't help that Matsuzaka was ignoring the Boston off-season conditioning program for pitchers and that, coupled with another stint in the World Baseball Classic, led to arm problems that derailed his '09 season.

Pettitte has been what he has been for the past three seasons in New York. He is an aging lefty that the Yankees relied on far too much in 2007 and 2008. Then, before last season, the Yankees picked up a couple extra arms for the front of the rotation and Pettitte was able to slide back to a more respectable three spot in the rotation.

Now that the veteran has dropped to the fourth spot in the rotation he will be more effective, well, at least in terms of performance to his slot. 200 innings plus an ERA right above 4.00 is more than respectable and is exactly what both teams want from the back end of their rotation. The thing is Andy Pettitte is far more likely to give that to the Yankees than Dice-K is to give it to the Sox. Sure the Japanese star has plenty of talent, but even if he is healthy, that doesn't preclude the possibility that he will continue to walk the house.

I've got to give it to the Yankees here simply because Pettitte's performance isn't likely to deviate much while what we have seen from Matsuzaka doesn't give me confidence in his performance this year.

Yanks even up the score at 2-2.

Dice-K Good, Sabathia Better

Matsuzaka was his old self last night as he pitched around five walks en route to allowing just one run in seven innings. Unfortunately for the Sox, C.C. Sabathia looked masterful again. If he's finally learned how to pitch to the Sox, we're dead. In spite of it all, Dice-K looks more than adequate to serve as the Sox fourth starter in the playoffs considering how well Lester, Buchholz, and Beckett have pitched lately.

I was hoping the Sox could make things a little tougher on the Yanks and delay the inevitable a bit longer. I at least wanted NY to have to work to clinch the division and expend just a bit more energy prior to the post season, but it was not to be.

This may be the last time we see Sox and Yanks this season, and to tell the truth, I'm not sure if I care to see another match up in the ALCS. I can't stay up for five hour games that don't start until 9 PM. I can't stomach the Fox coverage and the Bucky Dent/Aaron Boone/Big Papi/ Curt Schilling mini feature film montage at the outset of every game. When you watch that, it's no wonder why the rest of the country can't stand either team.

Tonight we've got two old, crafty pitchers on the mound in the form of Paul Byrd and Andy Pettttitttte. I predict that they will both be out by the fourth inning. Final score: Sox 12, Yanks 10. It will be over just before I go to work tomorrow on account of four or five rain delays.

Dice-K, Ortiz Continue to Disappoint

I had been complaining that the season just started and I can't watch Boston due to the 10:05 EST starts on the west coast. Little did I know it would spare me from such woefull performances. Dice-K gave up 5 runs in the first and although the Sox managed to fight back they lost to Oakland in the 12th. I know it's still a small sample, but Dice-K has managed all of 6 1/3 innings with an opponent batting average of .438 in two starts. Thanks for teasing us all in the WBC.

Clearly the Sox won't go 2-160, but it seems like there is legitimate reason for concern in Boston. Specifically, how long can they afford to continue to bat David Ortiz third? There is no injury excuse this season. Sox fans need to brace themselves for the fact that the era of Big Papi, as productive and exciting as it has been, may be over. He had an awesome five year run from 2003 to 2007 including three straight years with an OPS over 1.000, but that may be all he has in the tank. Clearly he was helped with Manny in the lineup, but there was a symbiotic relationship there that Ramirez benefited from as well. The fact is, big sluggers like him tend to fade fast when the time comes, as I've mentioned before.

State of the Rotation: Part III

Our third match up is Daisuke Matsuzaka vs. Chien-Ming Wang:

These guys are polar opposites. Though both arrived to their respective teams from the Pacific Rim, one was signed as an amateur free agent while the other was ransomed off for a grand total of $100 million dollars.

They also differ greatly in their pitching styles. Matsuzaka relies heavily on the strike out and Wang is a ground ball machine. That also means that Wang pounds the strike zone, never walking more than 59 batters in a season and even when one of those walks does occur, he usually can erase it with a double play ground out.

Contrasting Wang, Matsuzaka seemingly tries to walk the bases loaded every time out. In 2008 Matsuzaka had the fourth highest walk total in all of baseball while only throwing 167 2/3 innings. What saves him is his ability to limit hits and to strike out a ton of batters. Where Wang erases base runners with double plays, Matsuzaka strands them with a large amount of strike outs. The problem with this is the Japanese ace ends up expending himself early in the game and may only manage five or six innings a start.

If Wang has any fault it is that for a long time he never struck out batters. But over the last two years that seemed to change as his strike rate jumped up from 3.14 in 2006 to 4.70 in 2007 and 5.12 last season. If it rises anymore he may be able to take a step forward into the top echelon of pitchers in the league.

Verdict: Even though Matsuzaka has the better stuff and the higher upside, Wang is more reliable in terms of going deep into games. If Matsuzaka can stay around the plate a little more and avoid all those walks, then his raw ability will outshine Wang’s. Until then he runs the risk of the walks catching up to him. Wang may not provide as many dominating performances as Dice-K, but he provides more constistancy over the course of a season. Yanks jump back in front 2-1.

While You Were Sleeping

Unfortunately, I wasn't awake to see the Sox triumph in their real opener. Such is life when you are a new father who works full time and just spent the last two and a half hours working on the house you hope to move into in just a few short weeks. But I digress.

It was good to see Dice-K regain his control during last night's 2-1 win. When he's not sponsoring a walk-a-thon, the strike outs come with ease. Still the Sox can never seem to put their hitting together when Dice-K is dealing. Yes, the bats bailed him out of a number of poor outings last season. However, I counted at least five other starts when he gave up 2 or fewer runs and lost or had a no decision. In any event, I hope that Dice-K has turned the corner much like Josh Beckett did last season. When Josh learned to pitch, cut down on walks, and stopped trying to throw it through the back stop, he took it to the next level. I know Matsuzaka can do the same.