Game 2: Sox vs. Rays

If you told anyone before the start of this series that game 1 would be the pitchers' duel and game 2 would be the five hour home run-fest, they probably wouldn't have believed you. The Sox have Scott Kazmir figured out finally. He hasn't pitched well against Boston all season. The Rays took advantage of a weakened Josh Beckett. I'm not surprised. Don't look for any post season heroics from him in his compromised state.

Over all, the first two games against Tampa were a success. Boston, who gained the split they were after, will have their most reliable arm on the mound in Jon Lester when they go back to Fenway. Dustin Pedroia emphatically came out of his playoff slump hitting two home runs. Prior to that he was hitting .095 in the post-season. It's mildly disappointing that the Sox couldn't come up with the win last night, but considering all the trouble they've had at the Trop this year, a split is fine.

The Rays have shown that they're capable of winning at Fenway this season. However, I still like the Sox chances now that home field belongs to them. We know that Lester can handle playoff pressure. I wonder if Matt Garza of Tampa can do the same in game three. The White Sox bludgeoned him for 7 hits and 5 runs in 6 innings his last time out.

Red Sox think playoffs are too easy

It has just been reported that Mike Timlin will be added to the Red Sox roster and infielder Gil Velazquez will be dropped in his stead.

Gee Terry, I didn't know you wanted to go on vacation that bad. You should have said something before the playoffs started.

Typical Matsuzaka

Daisuke Matsuzaka was his normal self last night. He started the game by walking the bases loaded before wiggling out of a jam. The whole night he was practically unhittable and aside from his walk total he was brilliant.

I still think that at some point all his walks will catch up with him, but I doubt it will be this year. Tonight Josh Beckett is on the mound against Sox killer Scott Kazmir. Hopefully Kazmir digs deep, back to his former days when the Red Sox couldn't touch his filthy slider. This year he has been far from dominant against them, posting an ERA of 9.00 in four starts against the Sox. Beckett could still have a fragile oblique and the Rays will be ready to redeem themselves after last night when they left six men on base and struck out 11 times.

In the senior circuit the Phillies knocked off Joe Torre and the Dodgers for the second straight game. You know its not your night when you let the pitcher go 3-3 against you with three RBI and two runs scored.

Torre has been in this spot before and I don't think you can count out him or the Dodgers just yet. Manny is still jacking home runs and Hiroki Kuroda can dominate any game. Plus Jaime Moyer is a good guy to have in your regular season rotation but he leaves a lot to be desired in a playoff rotation.

Game 2 was crucial for the Dodgers. They probably weren't going to win any game that Cole Hamels pitched in but they could have easily won any game that wasn't pitched by him. Chad Billingsley laying an egg in Game 2 was a big letdown for Torre. Still they are very much in the series as they head back to LA.

Weekend Picks

I am running a half-marathon this weekend so here are my week 6 picks. 22-19-3 on the season.

Baltimore +1, New Orleans-7, Minnesota -10.5,  Cincinnati +7, Tampa Bay +3.5, Atlanta +4, Washington -13.5, Houston -2, Denver -3.5, Philadelphia -4, Green Bay -4, Dallas -4, New England +2.5, New York Giants -7.5. 

Also two bonus picks for two huge college football games: Oklahoma -6.5 over Texas and LSU +6.5 over Florida.

ALCS/NLCS Predictions

I picked 3 of 4 of the divison series winners so I thought I would continue the trend with the CS starting tonight.

Phillies vs. Dodgers: If Manny doesn't get the Pujols treatment in this series then the Phillies deserve to lose. Before Manny got to LA the Dodgers were an AVERAGE team. So if I am the Phillies, I like my chances. Philly has a more balanced line-up than the Cubs with Utley, J-Roll Howard, Burell. It is safe to say they will score more runs than the "tight as a drum Cubs" did last week. Cole Hamels is probably the 2nd best pitcher left in the playoffs and wins 2 games for the Phils. Brett Myers will be great one game and awful in another. And Jaime Moyer or Joe Blanton will somehow win a game. Lidge worries me a little, but I think the Phils score enough runs in 2 games to take the pressure off the bullpen. Unfortunately, Fox won't get its dream matchup of Manny, Nomar, D-Lowe and Torre returning to Boston. Phillies in 6.

Red Sox vs. Rays: This series should be a whopper. I won't be surprised no matter who wins. They Sox have the edge with their line-up, closer, ace, and experience. The Rays have defense, middle relief, homefield advantage, and the confidence of youth playing with house money. I won't get into the match-ups blah blah blah because these teams know exactly what they are up against. It comes down to execution and psychology. Some say the Rays don't need experience, but we haven't seen the Rays face a whole lot of adversity. Let's see what happens when they are down 3-1 or 2-0 and have to win in Fenway. I am not saying that will happen, but if it does, it could be a problem. The Sox just need to split the first two. Also, the Rays have home-field and they are great at the Trop because everything is fast and they are a fast team. They are baseball's version of "the greatest show on turf". But can someone please notice that the Trop will be 40% Sox fans because those blue hairs from Boston love those Florida tax breaks. With the rotations set and "Jon Lester I beat Cancer" (that is officially his new legal name) on the hill I somehow see a Sox VICTORY, but I am not biased at all. Sox in 7.

ALCS Rotation

The Sox have set their rotation for the ALCS, which starts tomorrow evening. They will begin with Daisuke Matsuzaka followed by Josh Beckett and Jon Lester. Presumably Francona made this decision because he wants Beckett to start a potential game seven. That's not a bad idea, I suppose, given his well known playoff track record. But in my opinion, you have to throw history out the window. Lester has been the ace this season. I think you have to set him up to go in game seven if necessary.

All three starters have good stats against the Rays. They have a combined 6-1 record and each has an ERA of 3.00 or less. Lester is 3-0 with a minuscule 0.90 ERA, another reason perhaps you would want him to start game seven. I know he's young, but he was money in the playoffs last season and pitched brilliantly in the World Series clincher.

Tim Wakefield will pitch game four. His stats against Tampa are much less impressive than the other pitchers I've mentioned; 0-2, 5.87 ERA. Wakefield has always been a streaky pitcher. He can look like a Hall of Famer then ready for retirement in back-to-back starts. Francona should have a short leash on him and have Paul Byrd ready to go if Wakefield's knuckle ball ain't dancing.

Sox vs. Rays: The Final Battle

You know a team has arrived when it can win in the playoffs after not playing very well. That's what the Red Sox did to Angels. I doubt that Boston can be as sloppy and still win against the Rays. Other than Jon Lester, the Sox starting pitching has been mediocre. The bullpen picked them up in this divisional series, but I would hardly call them reliable. Recent history has shown that the team with the hottest bullpen is the one that wins the World Series. J.P. Howell and Grant Balfour of Tampa Bay really concern me going into this next series.

Thank Moses for Jon Lester. Without him, the Sox would be home already. He refuses to be scored on in the playoffs. He's becoming one of the premiere left-handers in the game.


The Red Sox experience does count for something; although, I've never given experience as much value as most people. Boston can hope that now the stage is bigger and the lights brighter that the Rays will finally start to feel some pressure. I doubt it though. Tampa Bay is on a mission. They're young, talented, and loose. I make them the favorites to win the World Series at this point. If the Sox expect to beat the Rays, they will need to get contributions from everyone like they did against the Angels.

The Angels took 8 of 9 from the Sox, and the Sox still won in the playoffs. The Rays took 4 0f 6 from the Sox down the stretch. We'll see if Boston can overcome a season long nemesis again.